Warmer temperatures increase the risk of desertification in southern parts of Europe, and they cause a greater risk of droughts. Temperature extremes will therefore affect sectors such as agriculture, tourism and energy production. Cities can face new challenges for supply of water and other basic resources.
The assessment of the physical and economic impacts of specific climate change scenarios, both at European level and international level, is based on the integration of the relevant scientific disciplines, including climate change modelling, biophysical impact models and economic models.
According to the conclusions of a study conducted by the EU “Impacts of climate change”, if no further action is taken and global temperature increases by 3.5°C, climate damages in the EU could amount to at least €190 billion, a net welfare loss of 1.8% of its current GDP. Several weather-related extremes could roughly double their average frequency.
As a consequence, heat-related deaths could reach about 200 000, the cost of river flood damages could exceed €10 billion and 8000 km2 of forest could burn in southern Europe. The number of people affected by droughts could increase by a factor of seven and coastal damage, due to sea-level rise, could more than triple. These economic assessments are based on scenarios where the climate expected by the end of the century (2080s) occurs in the current population and economic landscape.